A Comprehensive Analysis of the 2025 Film Material Raw Material Price Surge: Increases, Causes, and a Precise Guide to Stockpiling

Preface 

Film companies are highly sensitive to fluctuations in raw material prices. —— One ton of resin price hike 500  Yuan, annual cost increase for 1,000-ton capacity 50  Ten thousand; surge in special materials prices 30% It could lead to losses for high-end projects. 2025  Annual Market “ A world of contrasts, hot and cold ”： EVA Due to record-high rush-installation prices for photovoltaics, PE Due to the volatility and weakening trend caused by falling crude oil prices and overcapacity, making inventory decisions has become increasingly challenging. This article, backed by the latest data, breaks down the recent increases in raw material prices, explores the underlying reasons, and provides category-specific inventory recommendations to help businesses control costs. 

1. 2025 A Comprehensive Overview of Price Increases in Thin-Film Raw Materials 

(1) Tier 1: Soaring Categories (Growth Rate Exceeding 10% ) 

1. Photovoltaic-grade EVA Resin 

• Price: 3 Month 18  Average daily price 11652.98  Yuan /  Tons (compared to 1  Monthly increase 12.3% , rising as high as the previous week 1.36% ); Compared to 2024  Year-end 10378  Yuan /  (Tons) increase 11.8% ；
• Region: East China 11800 Yuan /  Tons (higher than the Northwest) 150  Yuan /  Tonnes). 

2. Electronics-grade PI Membrane (modified) MPI ) 

• Price: Zhonghua Pixeo™ IB From 8.2  Ten thousand yuan /  Tonnes ( 2024  By the end of the year, it rose to 9.1  Ten thousand yuan /  Tonnes ( 2025  Year 3  Month, rise 10.9% ); 
• Brand: Imported Rise 10%-12% , Ruihuatai MPI Report 6.8  Ten thousand yuan /  Tons (rising) 6.2% ）。 

(II) Second Tier: Categories with Volatile Growth (Growth Rate 2%-8% ) 

1. Polyethylene PE ) Resin 

• Segmentation: LDPE 2 Month 8310.5  Yuan /  Tons (compared to 1  Monthly increase 0.2% ), 10  Month 7950  Yuan /  Ton; LLDPE Agricultural film material 3  Month 8500  Yuan /  Tons (rising) 3.2% ), 10  Month 8100  Yuan /  Ton; HDPE Repackaged materials 10  Month 8200  Yuan /  Tons (rising) 2.5% ); 
• Brand: Dow LLDPE Rise 4.1% (Above Zhenhai Refining & Chemical 2.3% ）。 

2. PET Resin 

• Price: Tokai Optical grade from 2.05 Ten thousand yuan /  Tons (at the beginning of the year) rose to 2.18  Ten thousand yuan /  Tonnes ( 3  Month, rise 6.3% ), 10  Month 2.15  Ten thousand yuan /  Tons; Yizheng Fiber's standard-grade product from 8900  Yuan /  Tons (at the beginning of the year) rose to 9300  Yuan /  Tonnes ( 10  Month, rise 4.5% ）。 

3. Functional additives 

• Opening agent: Grace from 10.2 Ten thousand yuan /  Tons rise to 10.8  Ten thousand yuan /  Tons (rising) 5.9% ); Weifang Hengshuo from 2.8  Ten thousand yuan /  Tons rise to 3.0  Ten thousand yuan /  Tons (rising) 7.1% ); 
• Antioxidant: BASF 1010 From 3.2  Ten thousand yuan /  Tons rise to 3.4  Ten thousand yuan /  Tons (rising) 6.2% ); Beijing is extremely likely to from 1.9  Ten thousand yuan /  Tons rise to 2.0  Ten thousand yuan /  Tons (rising) 5.3% ）。 

(III) Third Tier: Declining Categories (with Decline Rate Below 1%-5% ) 

1. Polyvinyl chloride ( PVC ) 

• Price: SG5 Type from 5200  Yuan /  Tons (at the beginning of the year) dropped to 5101.6  Yuan /  Tonnes ( 10  Month, fall 1.9% ), 2  The moon once rose to 5250  Yuan /  Ton; 
• Reason: 2025 Annual production capacity increases 8% , Supply and demand imbalance. 

2. Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber BR9000 ) 

• Price: From 14700 Yuan /  Tons (at the beginning of the year) dropped to 14414.3  Yuan /  Tonnes ( 10  Month, fall 1.9% ), 2  Monthly and weekly declines reach their largest levels 1.7% ；
• Impact: Alleviates cost pressures for rubber-modified membranes (though their share remains low). 

II. Behind the Fluctuations in Prices 6 Major Core Drivers 

(1) Cost Side: Transmission from Crude Oil to Upstream Raw Materials 

1. Crude Oil: Second Quarter OPEC+ Increased production leads Brent crude oil to 75  U.S. dollar /  The barrel drops to 60.11  U.S. dollar /  Bucket, 10  Monthly oil production LLDPE Cost reduction 390  Yuan /  Tons, PE Prices fall 3.8% ；

2. Upstream monomer: Pure benzene 2 Monthly increase 0.7% Push PET Rise 2.3% ; Ethylene prices rise due to overseas maintenance 8% Push EVA Cost; 

3. Cost difference: 10 Monthly Coal-to-Line Cost 6507  Yuan /  Tons (lower than oil-based) 669  Yuan /  Tons), coal-based PE Using price to boost volume and curb price increases. 

(II) Supply and Demand: Peak Season Scramble for Goods vs. Capacity Battles 

1. Policy requirements: 5 Month 31  The phased reduction of daily photovoltaic subsidies is pushing component manufacturers to accelerate installations. EVA Demand surges (capacity utilization exceeds 95% ), prices are rising 12.3% ；

2. Seasonal Fluctuations: 3 Peak Season Launch for Agricultural Film LLDPE Rise 3.2% ，6  Monthly demand drops sharply 2.1% ，10  Month “ Silver October ”  Below expectations PE Falling 2.8% ；

3. Production capacity: PE New addition 120  10,000-ton production capacity, LLDPE Inventory increases 47.55% Cap the increase; 

4. Import Dependence: EVA Imports account for 70% (Supply delay), PI High-end imports account for 80% (Capacity is limited), price hikes continue. 

(III) Policy Side: Subsidies and Environmental Regulations 

1. Subsidy: Before the Declining PV Subsidies EVA Increased procurement 40%；

2. Environmental Protection: East China “ Dual Carbon ”  Policy for Small Businesses PET Factory halts production, boosting industry concentration PET Rise 4.5% ；

3. Agriculture: Northwest promotes thicker, high-end mulch films. LLDPE Demand is increasing. 

(4) Industry Chain: Uneven Price Transmission 

1. Upstream Pass-Through: BASF and Dow are shifting crude oil costs downstream, leading to significant price hikes for domestically produced products. 

2. Downstream Pressure: Agricultural Film Companies PE Rise 3.2% But the product price only increased. 1.1% , profit margins squeezed; 

3. Alternative constraints: EVA Price hike pushes POE Demand (high cost) 30%-40% , which is difficult to scale up for widespread use). 

(5) Inventory Side: Market Sentiment Amplifies Volatility 

1. Peak Season Inventory Replenishment: 3 Monthly agricultural film production capacity utilization rate 80%， LLDPE Inventory down 12% , prices rise 3.2% ；

2. Off-season inventory reduction: 10 Month PE Downstream operations remain sluggish, while inventories continue to rise. 4.03% Prices are falling; 

3. Trader Speculation: EVA Traders stock up during the price hike period, leading to reduced availability of spot goods. 20%。

(6) International Front: Geopolitical and Exchange Rate Impacts 

1. Geopolitics: Middle East Tensions Drive Up Oil Shipping Costs 15% , Imports PE Costs are rising; 

2. Exchange rate: RMB weakens 3% , Imports EVA 、 PI Cost increase 2%-3% ；

3. Overseas Demand: Southeast Asia Sees a Solar PV Rush EVA , domestic imports decrease 18%。

3. 2025-2026 Recommended Stock-Up Times by Product Category 

(1) High-end Materials 

1. Photovoltaic-grade EVA 

• Window: 2025 Year 11-12 Month, 2026  Year 4-5 Month; 
• Logic: 5 Prices drop after monthly subsidies are phased out 5%-8% ，11  Post-month solar panel off-season sale, 2026  Year Q3 Before adding new production capacity 4-5 Low monthly prices; 
• Quantity: 3 Monthly demand (shelf life) 6  Months.) 

2. Electronics-grade PI Membrane (modified) MPI ) 

• Window: 2025 Year 12  Month, 2026  Year 3  Month; 
• Logic: 12 During the off-season for electronics, brands push for strong performance. 3  Yue Rui Huatai 2  Before the release of 10,000-ton capacity; 
• Note: Ruichaitai prioritized—fast delivery 30% ）。 

(II) General-purpose Resins 

1. PE (Specialized for agricultural film) 

• Window: 2025 Year 12-2026 Year 1  Month, 2026  Year 8-9 Month; 
• Logic: Off-season prices are lower ( 8000–8200 Yuan /  Tons), avoid 3  High prices during the peak month, 6  Moon blindly heads to the warehouse; 

2. PE (Specialized for packaging film) 

• Window: 2025 Year 11  Month, 2026  Year 2  Month; 
• Logic: 11 Month “ Double 11” Prices fell afterward, 2  Traders offer promotions after the Lunar New Year; 
• Brand: High-end Select Dow (in advance) 45 Daily fixed price), standard selection of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical (spot). 

3. Ordinary PET 

• Window: 2025 Year 10-11 Month, 2026  Year 5  Month; 
• Logic: 10 Monthly crude oil low, PET Cost is low, 5  Monthly demand peaks during the off-season. 3  Peak month; 
• Strategy: Small-batch, frequent deliveries (Yizheng Fiber has ample spot inventory). 

(III) Functional Additives 

1. Opening agent 

• Window: 2025 Year 11  Month, 2026  Year 4  Month; 
• Logic: 11 Monthly brand inventory clearance, 4  Monthly demand levels off during the off-season; 
• Quantity: 6 Monthly demand (long shelf life). 

2. Antioxidant 

• Window: 2025 Year 12  Month, 2026  Year 3  Month; 
• Logic: 12 Monthly BASF price adjustment before the lock-in, 3  Month sees spring planting prices rise; 
• Optimization: 30% Beijing can easily replace BASF to reduce costs. 

(IV) Risk Alert: Periods When Stockpiling Is Strictly Prohibited 

1.2026 Year 5  Month (Photovoltaic) EVA ): Demand drops as subsidies expire; prices rebound. 

2.2025 Year 3  Month / 9 Month ( PE ): Peak season for agricultural films sees high prices and tight spot supply; 

3.2026 Year Q3 (Electronic-grade materials): New capacity comes online, prices decline 8%-10% 。

4. Real-World Stockpiling Practices 5 Advanced Risk Management Techniques 

(1) Precise Demand Estimation 

1. Approach 3 Same period last year 1.1  Double inventory preparation (agricultural film plus policy flexibility); 

2. Stock up after binding downstream orders (focusing on high-end films); 

3. Monthly demand forecasting (add before peak season) 20% , off-season reduction 50% ）。 

(II) Brand Portfolio by Category 

1. High-end: 70% Imported + 30% Domestic (e.g., Toray) +  Shuangxing New Materials); 

2. General: 50% Large factory in-stock items + 50% Small and medium-sized factories at low prices (Zhenhai Refining & Chemical +  Local Petrochemicals); 

3. Additive: Weifang Hengshuo + Grace, Beijing—Extremely Easy +  BASF. 

(III) Price Locking 

1. Sign 3-6 Monthly Fixed-Price Agreement (e.g., Yizheng Chemical Fiber) PET ); 

2. Tiered Discounts 500 Tons 5%、1000  Tons 8% ); 

3. Price Protection Clause (Falls by More Than 5% Pay the price difference.) 

(4) Inventory Management 

1. Classify Inventory by Aging Period: PI ≤ 3 Month, PE ≤ 6 Month, Additives ≤12 Month; 

2. First-In, First-Out (FIFO) EVA Aging); 

3. Cross-border inventory sharing (peak season collaboration). 

(5) Monitor the market 

1. Weekly tracking of crude oil, monthly tracking of production capacity, quarterly tracking of policies; 

2. Warning: Crude oil prices surge above 10%/ Inventory drops significantly 20% Restocking the warehouse as prices fall sharply 8% Demand decreases 30% Suspension of operations; 

3. Leveraging Longzhong and Zhuochuang Weekly Reports. 

Conclusion 

2025 The divergence in raw material prices this year is the result of the combined effects of policy, technology, and supply-demand dynamics. Companies need to move beyond “ Following the crowd to stock up ” , establish “ Monitoring -  Calculate -  Combination -  Risk Control ”  System. The future 1-2 This year, high-end materials are stabilizing while general-purpose materials show diverging trends. We recommend closely monitoring international developments and the progress of domestic substitution efforts, while carefully balancing supply and costs. Feel free to share your challenges—or tips—about stockpiling in the comments section, and let’s explore market dynamics together!