Breaking News | The Middle East War Is Shaking Up the Plastics Market! Raw Material Prices Soar—How Can Film Manufacturers Break the Impasse?

Preface 

2026 Year 2 Since the end of the month, military tensions between the U.S. and Iran have continued to escalate, with Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz and causing heightened volatility in global energy and chemical markets. As the core upstream sector of the membrane industry, the plastic raw materials market has been hit hardest. PE 、 PP 、 PVC The price of core membrane raw materials has surged by more than… in just one week. 9% , with some varieties seeing gains that have exceeded 15% This has directly impacted the upstream and downstream sectors of the membrane industry, with noticeable disruptions across the board—from raw material supply and production costs to end‑customer orders. 

As a WeChat official account dedicated to the membrane industry, we are keenly aware of the profound impact this geopolitical conflict is having on membrane companies—especially small and medium-sized ones. This article breaks down the specific disruptions caused by the Middle East war to both upstream and downstream sectors of the plastics market, focusing on the core logic behind rising raw material prices, the actual impact on the membrane industry, and practical recommendations for addressing these challenges. Balancing expertise with real-world applicability, it aims to help membrane companies respond accurately to market volatility. 

I. Core Background: Why Can the Middle East Wars Shake Up the Global Plastics Market? 

As a global hub for energy and chemicals, the Middle East’s volatile geopolitical landscape directly impacts the plastics industry chain. This recent disruption stems from its irreplaceable role in the global supply chain for plastic raw materials, with the core factors being… 3 Point: 

(1) The Middle East is a global hub for plastic raw materials. “ Core Supply ”

Thanks to its abundant oil and gas resources, the Middle East has become a global hub for polyolefins ( PE 、 PP etc.), the main production and export hubs for core plastic raw materials such as methanol, with polyolefin capacity accounting for a global share… 30% Above, methanol exports account for nearly… 40% Among them, countries such as Iran and Saudi Arabia are China’s… PE , a major import source of methanol—Iran alone accounts for China’s… PE Import volume 10% Methanol import volume 45% After the outbreak of war, chemical plants in the Middle East reduced their output, ports came to a standstill, and disrupted exports directly led to a global shortage of raw materials, triggering a sharp surge in prices. 

(2) The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial hub for plastic material logistics. “ Strategic chokepoint ”

The Strait of Hormuz bears the burden of global… 27%–30% Maritime crude oil trade also serves as the core channel for plastic raw material exports from the Middle East. After Iran closed the strait, oil tankers were forced to take detours, increasing their voyage distances. 10–15 Heavens, shipping costs have skyrocketed! 3–4 Double, war risk premiums soar! 300%–500% Soaring logistics costs and extended lead times have further tightened supply, while traders’ reluctance to sell and hoarding of inventory have driven up raw material prices. 

(3) The Plastics Industry Chain “ A single pull of a hair can set the whole body in motion. ”

The production of plastic raw materials is highly dependent on crude oil and natural gas, and fluctuations in crude oil prices are directly passed down the entire industry chain. This war has led to fluctuations in Brent… WTI Crude oil prices surged more than… per week. 6% According to estimates, for every increase in oil prices… 10 U.S. dollar / Barrels: Rising Costs of Plastic Raw Materials 300–500 Yuan / tons. Meanwhile, raw material costs account for as much as… 60%–70% Rising raw material prices are directly squeezing the profit margins of film manufacturers. 

II. In-Depth Analysis: The Specific Disruptions Caused by the Middle East Situation to Both Upstream and Downstream of the Plastics Industry 

This disturbance is manifesting as… “ Upstream supply is tightening, midstream costs are under pressure, and downstream demand is cautious. ” the transmission pattern, which is closely linked to the membrane industry PE 、 PP 、 PVC The impact of raw materials is most significant, broken down as follows: 

(1) Upstream Raw Materials: Supply Shortages Widen, Prices Soar Across the Board 

1.   Significant price increases for core membrane raw materials: As of… 3 Month 6 Day, LLDPE The price of film materials in the East China region has risen to… 6700–7100 Yuan / Tons, weekly increase 175 Yuan / Ton; PP Prices in the East China region have risen to… 6600–6750 Yuan / Tons, weekly increase 125 Yuan / Ton, LDPE The increase from the beginning of the year to date has reached… 17.2% , hitting a new year-to-date high. 

2.   The supply gap continues to widen: Reduced capacity at Middle Eastern chemical plants and port shutdowns have led to a sharp decline in imported supplies, while domestic… PDH Plant utilization rates have declined, and some raw materials are experiencing… “ Close the book without reporting. “”“ Hard to find a single item. ” Phenomenon. 

3.   Cost rigidity is propping up high prices: With crude oil prices remaining at elevated levels and logistics and insurance costs surging, raw material production costs have risen sharply, making it difficult for prices to fall in the short term while volatility intensifies. 

(2) Midstream Processing: Pressure on Membrane Companies Intensifies, Earnings Margins Narrow 

1.   Production costs have risen sharply: Raw material costs account for a significant portion of membrane manufacturers’ production expenses. 60%–70% , this time the raw material prices have surged nearly… 10% , leading to a year-on-year increase in membrane manufacturers’ production costs. 8%–12% Some small and medium-sized membrane companies have been forced to cut back on production capacity. 

2.   Weak price pass‑through capability: The membrane industry is highly competitive, and small and medium-sized membrane companies have limited bargaining power, making it difficult for them to fully pass on cost pressures to downstream customers. Most companies absorb a portion of the price increases themselves, leading to a significant squeeze on profit margins—and in some cases, even to… “ Production equals loss. ”。

3.   Procurement and Production Challenges: Tight supply has led to extended procurement cycles, and some enterprises… “ You can’t buy the goods even if you have the money. ” …can only procure spot goods at high prices; with raw material prices fluctuating wildly, companies are easily caught in… “ Stockpiling losses, stockouts leading to production halts ” A dilemma. 

4.   Declining Capacity Utilization: Small and medium-sized membrane manufacturers are reducing output or halting production due to cost and raw material issues, while even large membrane companies need to adjust their production plans, prioritizing the manufacture of high‑value‑added membrane products to ease pressure. 

(3) Downstream End Users: Demand is cautious and tentative, with order growth slowing down. 

1.   Exercise caution in terminal procurement: Downstream industries such as packaging, food, and photovoltaics are adopting a cautious approach in light of anticipated price increases. “ Procure on demand and reduce stockpiling. ” The strategy has led to a slowdown in order growth for membrane companies, resulting in some small and medium-sized membrane companies losing orders. 

2.   Demand for high‑value‑added products is becoming increasingly prominent: End users are more inclined to procure high‑barrier films, bio‑based films, and other high‑value‑added products, while demand for low‑value‑added film products is shrinking further. 

3.   Industry reshuffling is accelerating: Small and medium-sized membrane companies are struggling to meet end‑market demand due to insufficient costs and technology, and are gradually being phased out. Large membrane companies are leveraging their advantages to seize market share, further intensifying the Matthew effect.

3. Trend Forecast: Raw material prices remain high in the short term, with clear divergence emerging over the medium to long term. 

In light of the Middle East situation, supply and demand fundamentals, and the cyclical nature of the membrane industry, future plastic raw material prices are expected to… “ Short-term high-level fluctuations, mid‑term structural divergence, and long‑term return to fundamentals. ” Trend: Membrane companies need to anticipate in advance. 

(1) Short Term ( 1–2 (months): Trading in a narrow range at high levels, with risk premiums taking the lead. 

If the issue of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, crude oil prices will remain… 75–85 U.S. dollar / Bucket range, extreme scenarios, or shocks 90–100 U.S. dollar / Barrel. PE 、 PP The raw materials for membrane production will remain in a high‑range trading pattern. LLDPE 、 LDPE Due to its high dependence on imports, it may lead the way in terms of price increases. Currently, the main plastic futures contract is… 2 Rise at the end of the month 15.1% Spot prices have generally been raised. 150–300 Yuan / Tons—short‑term geopolitical risks are the core drivers of prices. 

(2) Mid‑term ( 3–6 (months): Structural differentiation—pathways and varieties determine the differences. 

In terms of process pathways, the cost of ethylene produced from oil feedstocks is tied to oil prices, while the cost of the gas-based route remains relatively stable; therefore, the gas-based route is adopted. PE Membrane manufacturers will gain a cost advantage. In terms of product types, the increase in basic resin prices may narrow to… 3%–5% , high‑end resin ( MPE 、 EVOH ) Prices remain strong, and bio-based materials ( PLA 、 PBAT ) Cost reductions and improved cost performance are driving the transformation of film‑forming companies. 

(3) Long-term ( 6 (Over a month): Return to fundamentals—supply and demand determine the price center. 

If the situation in the Middle East eases, oil prices will fall back to… 65–75 U.S. dollar / Within the barrel range, raw material prices adjust as costs decline, ultimately reverting to supply and demand fundamentals. “ Golden March and Silver April ” During the traditional peak season for the membrane industry, recovering downstream demand will support prices, but high raw material costs may curb purchasing, limiting upside potential. 

4. Membrane Company Response Strategies: Break the Impasse with Precision and Mitigate the Impact of Price Volatility 

Membrane enterprises—especially small and medium-sized membrane enterprises—can… “ Reduce costs, adjust the structure, strengthen coordination, and pursue transformation. ” A four-dimensional strategy to mitigate the impact of market volatility and achieve steady development: 

(1) Locking in Costs: Building a Diversified Procurement and Risk Hedging System 

1.   Optimize procurement channels: Reduce reliance on Iranian raw materials and diversify domestic supply sources; sign long-term contracts with major domestic petrochemical companies to secure… 60%–70% Raw material demand—flexibly replenish inventory with remaining spot supplies. 

2.   Using futures hedging: Monthly purchasing stable film manufacturers can utilize plastics, PP Futures lock in procurement costs and hedge against the risk of price increases. 

3.   Manage inventory reasonably: Stock raw materials on demand to avoid indiscriminate hoarding, while also maintaining emergency stock to address supply shortages. 

(2) Adjust the Structure: Optimize Products and Production Capacity to Enhance Risk-Resilience 

1.   Product Structure Upgrade: Increase R&D and production of high‑value‑added films to offset cost pressures through product premium pricing and enhance core competitiveness. 

2.   Formula Optimization to Reduce Dependency: Adjust the formula to decrease the usage of high‑cost raw materials while lowering costs without compromising performance. 

3.   Flexible Capacity Adjustment: By aligning with raw material prices, optimize the utilization rates of different process production lines to minimize costs. 

(3) Strengthen Collaboration: Streamline the Industrial Chain and Build a Community of Shared Interests 

1.   Collaborative Pricing with Downstream Partners: Establishing “ Raw material costs + Processing fee ” Dynamic pricing mechanisms and price‑linkage agreements with key clients help prevent order losses. 

2.   Deep Collaboration with Upstream Partners: Establish strategic partnerships with petrochemical companies and traders to secure priority supply rights and favorable pricing. 

3.   Industry Collaboration and Coalition Building: Forming procurement alliances to enhance bargaining power, share sourcing and logistics resources, and jointly address market volatility. 

(4) Pursuing Transformation: Deploying Green New Materials and Seizing Future Growth Areas 

As “ Dual Carbon ” Promote, PLA 、 PBAT As the cost of bio-based membranes continues to decline, membrane manufacturers can proactively plan their production lines and increase R&D efforts, reducing their reliance on petroleum-based raw materials, aligning with green and environmentally friendly requirements, and achieving long‑term development. 

Conclusion 

The market disruptions caused by the Middle East wars represent a short‑term challenge for the membrane industry, while also presenting long‑term opportunities for industry reshuffling and corporate transformation. Rising raw material prices and supply constraints are compelling membrane manufacturers to optimize procurement, upgrade products, and enhance competitiveness, thereby driving the industry toward high‑quality, green development. 

For membrane manufacturers, only by accurately gauging raw material trends, establishing risk hedging mechanisms, optimizing product portfolios, and strengthening supply chain collaboration can they secure a firm foothold amid market volatility. Looking ahead, as the situation in the Middle East becomes clearer and membrane material technologies continue to advance, the plastics market will return to rationality. Membrane companies that proactively plan ahead and embrace transformation will undoubtedly gain a competitive edge in the industry.